U.S.-China conflict

A direct China-U.S. conflict would cause hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars’ worth of economic damage through business disruptions alone.

12 months of Western operations in Ukraine could hold valuable lessons for Chinese security interests in North Korea. 

Insights from Mark Cancian.

Success depends on decreasing the perceived likelihood that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would succeed, minimizing the perceived benefits, and increasing the expected costs. 

China's new diplomatic “countermeasures” to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan strike at the Biden administration's priority areas for the relationship.

Rethinking “strategic ambiguity” is important, but in the meantime Washington must compensate for its dwindling military advantage over China with more costly signals of political resolve.

Most of U.S. assets and allies in the Asia-Pacific are maritime-based. History suggests that won’t be enough to overcome China’s continental advantage.

Insights from Timothy Heath.

Circumstantial evidence suggests China might consider using its growing inventory of intercontinental ballistic missiles in a conventional strike role.

Don’t be distracted by the aerial incursions and naval build-ups – the real action is China’s nuclear build-up, in the hopes of deterring any U.S. intervention in a regional conflict.

China-U.S. competition could actually be a net good for the world – if the middle powers can steer it in the right direction.