deterrence – The Diplomat

An Era of ‘Submarine Diplomacy’?

Michito Tsuruoka — Fri, 16 Jun 2023 18:48:00 +0900

The long-standing dilemma between deterrence and reassurance is set to play out again.

Australia’s Deterrence Dichotomy

Michael Clarke — Sat, 10 Jun 2023 02:11:00 +0900

Deterrence is the fulcrum of Australian defense policy, but questions of where, what, and how remain unanswered – especially regarding the new SSNs.

Rethinking the Philippines’ Deterrence in the South China Sea

Erick Nielson C Javier — Sat, 26 Mar 2022 00:29:00 +0900

Manila should change the narrative from a focus on “how to defend” against China toward a more active strategy of deterring China.

Biden and the Credibility Conundrum: What If China Attacks Taiwan?

Robert Farley — Tue, 22 Dec 2020 00:44:00 +0900

American presidents have worried about the credibility of their threats since the beginning of the Nuclear Age.

The Origins and Drivers of Australia’s 2020 Defense Strategic Update

Ankit Panda — Sat, 11 Jul 2020 01:05:00 +0900

Australia reacts to a shifting regional environment.

The US-Australia Alliance and Deterrence in the Pacific Islands Region

Tom Corben — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 03:03:00 +0900

The Pacific Islands region has traditionally been peripheral to alliance deterrence discussions. That’s beginning to change.

China Remains Unfazed by Warming US-Vietnam Security Ties

Derek Grossman — Thu, 19 Mar 2020 07:55:00 +0900

U.S.-Vietnam ties continue to advance, and Beijing doesn’t seem too concerned.

An Effective US Approach to Pyongyang: Deterrence and Detente

John Dale Grover — Wed, 12 Feb 2020 04:57:00 +0900

History demonstrates that such an approach is necessary and desirable.

New Ground-Launched Missiles for the US-Japan Alliance?

Ankit Panda — Sat, 25 Jan 2020 00:37:00 +0900

How will the alliance address new challenges and opportunities in a post-INF world?

Deterrence and South China Sea Strategy: What Do the Latest China-Indonesia Natuna Tensions Tell Us?

Prashanth Parameswaran — Wed, 08 Jan 2020 04:47:00 +0900

A look at the broader implications of a recent episode for deterrence and the strategies of countries confronting China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.

Are Pakistan’s Battlefield Nuclear Weapons a Mirage?

Aditya Ramanathan and Kunaal Kini — Tue, 07 May 2019 11:31:00 +0900

What exactly is behind Pakistan’s much-discussed low-yield Nasr? And how might it be used?

Shifting Nuclear Sands in South Asia: Understanding India’s Counterforce Temptations

Ankit Panda — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 02:50:00 +0900

Political scientist Christopher Clary discusses issues pertaining to strategic stability in South Asia.

Why the Indian Air Force Strike at Balakot in Pakistan Matters

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran — Wed, 27 Feb 2019 07:24:00 +0900

A discussion of what we know so far about Indian air strikes on Pakistani territory on February 26, 2019.

Pakistan’s Nasr Missile: ‘Cold Water’ Over India’s ‘Cold Start’?

Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan — Thu, 31 Jan 2019 22:54:00 +0900

A closer look at the broader significance of the capability.

Report: US to Conduct Army Tactical Missile System Test on Okinawa in 2019

Ankit Panda — Tue, 15 Jan 2019 13:57:00 +0900

The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is likely to be tested in Japan this year.

North Korea, US 'Left of Launch' Cyber Capabilities, and Deterrence

Ankit Panda — Thu, 06 Dec 2018 07:05:00 +0900

U.S. "left of launch" cyber capabilities may have unexpected and undesirable consequences on crisis stability.

US 'Left of Launch' Cyber Efforts Might Increase Korean Peninsula Nuclear Dangers

Ankit Panda — Mon, 22 Oct 2018 09:07:00 +0900

U.S. offensive cyber capabilities might prove destabilizing with North Korea.

Will India Nuclearize the BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missile?

Joy Mitra — Thu, 12 Jul 2018 07:22:00 +0900

New Delhi has to consider its deterrence requirements and perceptions in Beijing and Islamabad.

US North Korea Policy After the Olympics

James J. Przystup — Sat, 10 Feb 2018 01:43:00 +0900

A closer look at Washington’s policy options after the likely expiry of the Winter Olympic truce.

How Would a War Between the US and China End?

Robert Farley — Thu, 25 Jan 2018 02:04:00 +0900

A new paper examines the contours of war termination in the U.S.-China context.

How Should We Write About Nuclear Weapons?

Franz-Stefan Gady — Fri, 19 Jan 2018 07:11:00 +0900

How should one combine the human with the abstract when writing about nuclear weapons?

Hawaii's Missile False Alarm Spurs Worries About US-North Korea War

Robert Farley — Mon, 15 Jan 2018 16:18:00 +0900

How likely is war between North Korea and the United States?

Trump's Dangerous Twitter Rebuke of Tillerson May Make Diplomacy Impossible With North Korea

Ankit Panda — Mon, 09 Oct 2017 10:25:00 +0900

Trump's comments risk serious destabilization and even war.

US Bombers, Fighters Fly North of Demilitarized Zone Off North Korea's Coast

Ankit Panda — Sun, 24 Sep 2017 07:01:00 +0900

The flights were the farthest north of the DMZ any U.S. fighters or bombers have flown in the 21st century.

Could North Korea’s Example Inspire Iran and Pakistan?

Akhilesh Pillalamarri — Thu, 21 Sep 2017 00:07:00 +0900

Is missile defense the way out for the United States?

The Calculated Logic Behind North Korea’s Missile Tests

Ankit Panda — Thu, 21 Sep 2017 04:05:00 +0900

North Korea's nuclear tests have strategic and technical purpose.

North Korea: In Deterrence We Trust

James M. Acton — Tue, 12 Sep 2017 07:23:00 +0900

Time to choose the less dangerous option.

How North Korea's ICBM and New 'Thermonuclear' Bomb Might 'Decouple' the US and Its Allies

Ankit Panda — Mon, 04 Sep 2017 08:18:00 +0900

North Korea's objective is the end of the United States alliances in Northeast Asia. ICBMs and big nukes may get it there.

Welcome to the H-Bomb Club, North Korea

Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang — Tue, 05 Sep 2017 11:10:00 +0900

North Korea's pursuit of a thermonuclear weapon comports perfectly with its nuclear strategy.

North Korea: The End of the Nuclear Taboo?

Franz-Stefan Gady — Tue, 29 Aug 2017 21:04:00 +0900

Is the North Korean nuclear crisis slowly eroding the so-called nuclear taboo?

Denuclearization Is Dead, Now Let’s Bury It

Michael Haas — Tue, 15 Aug 2017 20:51:00 +0900

The US does have a credible military option for dealing with North Korea. It’s called nuclear deterrence.

Why Trump's Threat of 'Fire and Fury' Against North Korea Is So Dangerous

Vipin Narang and Ankit Panda — Fri, 11 Aug 2017 05:29:00 +0900

Trump's empty threats are not only dangerous; they serve to undermine allied commitments and the credibility of U.S. threats.

North Korea's Hwasong-14 ICBM: What Is It and Why Does It Matter?

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran — Fri, 07 Jul 2017 08:55:00 +0900

What does North Korea's Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile mean for the United States and the world?

North Korea's ICBM: A New Missile and a New Era

Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang — Fri, 07 Jul 2017 03:01:00 +0900

North Korea didn’t just acquire an ICBM out of nowhere.

Deterring North Korea

Masashi Murano — Wed, 24 May 2017 19:27:00 +0900

The United States and its allies need to review and reconstruct their multi-layered deterrence strategy.

What Would Inform and Drive an Indian Nuclear Posture Review?

Vivek Prahladan — Wed, 03 May 2017 23:30:00 +0900

Is New Delhi merely conducting an intellectual exercise about nuclear doctrine or is it responding to something?

Go First and Go Nuclear: Assessing North Korea's Emerging Nuclear Strategy

Ankit Panda — Sun, 30 Apr 2017 11:59:00 +0900

Vipin Narang explains North Korea's nuclear warfighting strategy and theory of victory.

The Real Risk of US Military Force Against North Korea

Daniel Amick — Sat, 22 Apr 2017 01:18:00 +0900

The recent U.S. strikes on Syria and Afghanistan could pose a disturbing lesson for the North Korea issue.

North Korea's 2017 Military Parade Was a Big Deal. Here Are the Major Takeaways

Ankit Panda — Sat, 15 Apr 2017 14:04:00 +0900

North Korea showed the world that it's doing what it needs to to deter its enemies.

Deterrence Diminished by US Navy Readiness Gaps as Congress Debates Budget

Steven Stashwick — Thu, 06 Apr 2017 06:45:00 +0900

Leaders warn years of stunted budgets leave Navy with a thin bench in event of a conflict.

Pukkuksong-2: Why North Korea's New Solid-Fuel Ballistic Missile Matters

Ankit Panda and Prashanth Parameswaran — Fri, 17 Feb 2017 11:44:00 +0900

North Korea's new missile and launcher show that Pyongyang is taking survivability seriously.

India Successfully Tests Nuclear-Capable Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Ankit Panda — Tue, 27 Dec 2016 07:23:00 +0900

On Monday, India tested its Agni-V missile for the fourth time.

Could India's Arihant-class SSBN Lead to Strategic Instability in South Asia?

Robert Farley — Mon, 24 Oct 2016 11:16:00 +0900

Are India's deterrent needs served appropriately with the Arihant-class?

South China Sea Disputes Are On Duterte's China Agenda Ahead of Visit, But to What Ends?

Ankit Panda — Wed, 12 Oct 2016 10:09:00 +0900

Can Duterte make China a workable offer concerning the South China Sea disputes?

Defeating China's Fortress Fleet and A2/AD Strategy: Lessons for the United States and Her Allies

James R. Holmes — Mon, 20 Jun 2016 01:44:00 +0900

China's built a fortress fleet to operationalize its A2/AD ambitions. How can the U.S. and her allies counter this?

Leveraging the Amphibious Advantage in the Asia Pacific

Robert Farley — Fri, 03 Jun 2016 00:29:00 +0900

Will amphibious platforms make a difference in the Asia-Pacific?

Wondering Why China Held Its Parade? Here Are 5 Things Beijing Accomplished.

Dingding Chen — Tue, 08 Sep 2015 01:58:00 +0900

There are both internal and external benefits of the military parade, despite some international concerns.

How the US Outplayed China in the South China Sea

Van Jackson — Tue, 28 Jul 2015 18:42:00 +0900

A recent move by the U.S. Pacific Command is a good example of what Washington should do.

Stop Confusing Deterrence with Strategy

Van Jackson — Mon, 06 Jul 2015 21:51:00 +0900

Thinking about deterrence shouldn’t be a substitute for critical thinking.

India, Pakistan, and the Limits of Effective Deterrence

David J. Karl — Sun, 07 Jun 2015 04:01:00 +0900

The Indian defense minister may have inadvertently acknowledged the limits of India's conventional deterrence.

China's Air Superiority Fighters Are Getting Stealthier

Ankit Panda — Tue, 05 May 2015 23:37:00 +0900

Plus, nuclear deterrence in South Asia, India's ballistic missile defense, and history in East Asia.

The Real Danger in Nuclear Modernization

Adam Mount — Mon, 09 Feb 2015 22:46:00 +0900

The true risks in modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal are misunderstood.

India-Vietnam Supersonic Missile Talks in 'Advanced Stage'

Ankit Panda — Mon, 15 Sep 2014 14:41:00 +0900

Vietnam may soon import the BrahMos cruise missile from India.

Nuclear Testing and the South Asia Arms Race

Tahir Nazir — Wed, 23 Jul 2014 22:56:00 +0900

India has the ability to reduce nuclear tension in South Asia within the current treaty framework.

Time to Actively Deter North Korea

Patrick M. Cronin — Wed, 25 Jun 2014 12:59:00 +0900

“It’s time to make North Korea have to worry more about deterring us rather than the other way around.”

Deterring China = Capability x Resolve x Belief

James R. Holmes — Thu, 19 Jun 2014 10:25:00 +0900

The U.S. shouldn't unnecessarily antagonize China but it must underscore its capability and resolve to Beijing.

How the Army Should Pivot to Asia

John R. Deni — Thu, 12 Jun 2014 07:41:00 +0900

Anachronistic basing arrangements are preventing the U.S. Army from achieving its full potential in the Indo-Pacific.

Why Is China Talking Tough?

Dingding Chen — Tue, 22 Apr 2014 01:44:00 +0900

Forget nationalism, China is talking tough in order to demonstrate resolve and therefore deter the U.S.

How Richard Nixon Would Deter China

Zachary Keck — Fri, 31 Jan 2014 22:07:00 +0900

By using the “madman theory,” the U.S. and its allies could inject a degree of risk into China’s strategic calculus.

US Prompt Global Strike Missiles Prompt Russian Rail-Mounted ICBMs

Ankit Panda — Thu, 19 Dec 2013 04:53:00 +0900

Russia will move ahead with an updated rail-mounted missile system for Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.

How to Make Coercion Work

Zachary Keck — Tue, 17 Dec 2013 02:46:00 +0900

Coercion is much tougher than deterrence but reducing objectives can make it work.

Obama’s Most Dangerous WMD Precedent in Syria

Tue, 27 Aug 2013 00:43:56 +0900

Obama set a dangerous precedent when he called for an investigation into who ordered the chemical weapon attacks in Syria.

Not a Good Idea: American Nukes in South Korea

Sat, 02 Mar 2013 06:20:34 +0900

The redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula would be a Cold War solution to a 21st century problem.

The Return of Dr. Strangelove

Mon, 20 Aug 2012 07:29:00 +0900

How fiscal austerity will push the United States towards nuclear arms and cyber-warfare.